By Jan Vink and Robin Blakely, Cornell University
Census data is a useful tool for uncovering population trends in a given area. Earlier this year, the U.S. Census Bureau released the county estimates for July 1, 2012. Cornell University studied the data for New York, and highlighted some of the estimates and results when aggregating into the Economic Development Regions.
Within the data, the change in population is split in change due to natural increase and due to net-migration. Natural increase is the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths, net-migration the result of people moving in- and out of a region.
According to recent American Community Survey data, more people moved out of Upstate New York to another state than moved in (2007- 2011). In fact, only 85.5 persons moved in for every 100 who left. While this out-migration trend has caused concern, the characteristics of those entering and leaving the region have also attracted attention.
The chart below examines net migration along a variety of movers’ characteristics, including age, sex, income, educational attainment, and poverty status. For example, for every 100 people age 70-74 who move out of the Upstate region, only 43 move in (a net decrease in this age group). In comparison, 149 people in the 18-19 year old age group moved to Upstate for every 100 that moved away (a net increase). These migration patterns – not to mention their net effects on the region’s human capital – present challenges and opportunities for Upstate communities and the region as a whole.
Additional highlights of the most recent census data:
• According to the estimates, New York State gained 192,157 residents between April 1, 2000 and July 1, 2012.
• That is a growth of 1.0 percent over that period. Natural increase would have caused a growth of 1.1 percent, but there was a small loss due to 14,551 more people moving out of the state then moving in.
• Six economic regions gained population. New York City gained the most in both number (161,561) and in percentage (2.0%).
• Four economic regions lost population since the latest Decennial Census; the numeric loss was largest in Western New York (- 4,115), the relative loss was largest in the Southern Tier (- 0.6%).
• In all regions there were more births then deaths, but in the Mohawk Valley, the Southern Tier and in Western New York this natural increase caused just 0.1 percent of population growth.
• Net-Migration was negative (more people moving out then moving in) in seven out of 10 regions and was most negative for Central New York (- 6,077 or – 0.8%). The three regions with a positive net-migration were the Capital District, New York City and the North Country, all contributing just 0.1 percent or less to the growth of the population.
New York’s Counties
Thirty-five counties lost population between 2010 and 2012 and 27 counties gained population. The gaining counties are in the greater New York City area, in the Albany- Schenectady area, the western part of the North Country and in the Rochester-Corning- Cortland triangle. Erie County also gained, but just 44 persons in this period.
Jefferson County was relatively the fastest growing county (3.5%), followed by Kings [Brooklyn] (2.4%) and New York County [Manhattan] (2.1%). Kings county [Brooklyn) was numerically the county with the biggest gain, 60,935 persons. It is followed by three of the other New York City boroughs: Queens (42,046), New York [Manhattan] (33,217) and Bronx (23,365).
Schoharie County relatively lost the most population (-2.0%), followed by Delaware (-1.5%) and Madison (-1.4%). Numerically, Broome County lost the most residents ( -2,540). Broome is followed by Chautauqua (-1,366) and Niagara (-1,345).
In 13 counties the number of deaths between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2012 exceeded the number of births; they have a negative natural increase. Delaware and Otsego lost 0.5% of their population due to this negative natural increase.
Bronx, Jefferson and Kings [Brooklyn] all gained just over 2% of their population because of their number of births exceeding the number of deaths.
For only 15 counties it is estimated that there were more people moving in than moving out. The relative largest surplus was in Jefferson and Schuyler (both 1.2%).
The relative largest deficits caused by migration were in Schoharie (-2.0%) and Madison (-1.7%).
County-level census data is a powerful tool for examining population trends and determining the needs of county residents. For additional data and statistics on population trends in New York’s counties, visit http://pad.human.cornell.edu/NYMinutes /NYMinute55stats.cfm